Gold prices continue to decline in October; recovery expected in November.

Key summary

Global gold prices fell below $3,875 per ounce, while Thai gold closed at 62,200 baht, resulting in negative returns of 6.8% and 6.5%, respectively, in October. This marks the second consecutive month of declining prices. The main factors are concerns about the US-Iran conflict following the US midterm elections, and the surge in Brent crude oil prices, nearing its peak. Inflation is rising due to Brent crude oil reaching $117. The Fed's interest rate hike trend is not yet over, although the meeting on October 27-28 kept rates at 3.75-4.00%, another rate hike is expected in December. Technically, the price trend is downward. Gold has support levels at $3,870 and $3,800, while key resistance levels are at $4,200-$4,225. The results of the US midterm elections, which gave the Democratic Party a majority in both houses of Congress, could lead to a "Government Gridlock," which could positively impact gold prices by reducing inflationary pressure from fiscal policy and limiting the budget for wars. Central banks worldwide purchased a total of 675 tons of gold in the first nine months of the year, an increase of 6% compared to the previous year. In the third quarter, China purchased 63 tons and Poland purchased 40 tons. The World Gold Council expects that central banks will purchase at least 1,000 tons of gold this year.