Thai Stock Market Volatility Driven by Geopolitical Shocks, Interest Rate Differentials, and Weak Earnings Growth

Key summary

Monica reviews Thailand's stock market performance in 2026, noting a sharp rise following the election of Phumiphon Thai as the leading party, followed by a sudden drop after US-Iran tensions escalated. Foreign buying accumulated over 700 billion baht before reversing to selling pressure, reducing net inflows to single-digit billions. The index closed at 1,554.94 points, down 16.78 points with 60.7 billion baht in trading volume. Analysts view the 1,550 point level as a support zone. Key factors include high US Fed interest rates and bond yields creating an outflow incentive, low EPS growth making Thai equities appear expensive relative to earnings, strategic asset allocation shifts toward US tech, Taiwanese/Korean semiconductors, or undervalued China markets, and concerns over Thailand's K-shaped GDP recovery and delayed economic stimulus measures.