Global Energy Price Surge Threatens Thai Export Competitiveness Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Key summary

The Office of Trade Policy and Strategy warns that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven global energy prices higher, creating a chain reaction that increases import costs, production expenses, and living costs for Thailand. Brent crude oil averaged $88.70 per barrel over the first nine months of 2026, rising 26.7% year-on-year, while LNG prices followed a similar upward trend. Consequently, fuel imports surged by 40.1% in value during the first eight months, widening the trade deficit for this category as the Thai baht weakened from an average of 31.27 to 33.22 against the US dollar between January and September.