Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration Opens Trade Opportunities for Thailand Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Key summary

Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reports that global supply chain reconfiguration presents new trade and investment opportunities driven by Thailand's geographic location, production base, infrastructure, and trade networks. However, the agency emphasizes the need to increase domestic value-added, upgrade business potential, and diversify markets and production sources to enhance resilience against global trade volatility. Analysis of the past decade shows that trade conflicts, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and strategic industry competition have shifted investment decisions toward supply security, geopolitical risk mitigation, and environmental considerations. Key strategies include diversifying suppliers, maintaining production in China while adding other bases (China Plus One), relocating closer to end markets or allies, and stockpiling critical goods. Sectors with significant roles include semiconductors, electronics, AI, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, energy, food, and basic inputs. Thailand's export share to the US rose from 11.4% to 21.4% between 2016–2025, while imports from China increased from 21.6% to 31.1%, and from Taiwan from 3.7% to 7.4%. Technology and electronics exports grew, with computer equipment (HS 8471) rising from 4.9% to 6.7% and telecommunications devices (HS 8517) from 1.2% to 5.1% of total export value; integrated circuit imports (HS 8542) rose from 4.8% to 10.0% of total import value. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached $19.1 billion in 2025, a 30.3% increase year-on-year, with growing interest in electronics, semiconductors, digital economy, and renewable energy. NESDC proposes five key directions: targeted market/product/source diversification; upgrading industries and linking SMEs to global supply chains; adapting to new trade regulations and standards; expanding trade cooperation and strategic economic partnerships; and developing infrastructure and risk management systems. The agency notes that short-term export data may reflect pre-tax measure shipments and inventory adjustments.