Thailand's October Inflation Hits 3.90% Amid Rising Fuel Costs

Key summary

Thailand's annual headline inflation rate reached 3.90% in October 2026, primarily driven by a sharp 29.18% surge in fuel prices linked to the ongoing Middle East energy crisis and attacks on Saudi Arabian oil-producing areas. Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), reported that core inflation excluding fresh food and energy stood at 1.58%. The average headline inflation for the January–October period was 1.77% compared to the same period last year. While prices in the vehicles, transport, and communications category rose 10.93% year on year due to fuel costs affecting various modes of transport, the broader non-food and beverage category increased by 3.66%. Specific price increases were noted in prepared food (4.06%), eggs and dairy products (6.90%), and fresh vegetables early in October due to flooding, though vegetable prices normalized later in the month. Conversely, fresh fruit prices fell slightly by 0.15%, and electricity prices declined. The Commerce Ministry maintained its full-year inflation forecast for 2026 at a range of 1.8–2.2% with a midpoint of 2.0%. Nantapong expects inflation to remain positive in November, citing global energy prices, prepared food costs, transport expenses, and weather conditions as key factors to monitor. Government measures, including energy interventions, price monitoring by the Commerce Ministry, and flood relief efforts, are expected to help mitigate price pressures.