TDRI Warns Thai Pension Fund May Deplete by 2052 Without Reform

Key summary

The Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) warned that the Social Security pension fund could run out of money between 2052 and 2061 if reforms are not implemented. TDRI researcher Athakrit Lek Sivilai stated at the TDRI Annual Public Conference 2026 on October 22, 2026, that Thailand's elderly population will exceed one-third of the total population by 2050. The institute highlighted that while local authorities receive 10,440 baht per person annually from the Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) to care for frail elderly individuals, only 5,000 recipients in Bangkok accessed these services. Senior researcher Chakrit Lert Nithan proposed three key measures: gradually increasing employee contribution rates from 6% to 12%, raising average investment returns from 2-3% to 5-6%, and raising the retirement age from 55 to 60 years, with exceptions for those unable to work. The institute also suggested adopting individual accounts, setting a minimum pension, improving governance, disclosing investment data, and separating the pension fund from the civil service to allow professional management.