Thailand's International School Sector Faces Intensifying Competition as Operator Count Surpasses Student Growth

Key summary

According to analysis from the Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) published on October 9, Thailand's international education landscape is undergoing significant structural shifts driven by a surge in the number of operating institutions. The sector now hosts 280 schools in 2026, a figure that has climbed from 234 in 2022 and is projected to reach 293 by 2027. This expansion outpaces student enrollment growth, which rose from 66,352 students in 2022 to 86,056 in 2026, with estimates placing the total at 89,200 for the following year. Consequently, the average number of pupils per school has declined, dropping from 312 in both 2024 and 2025 to 307 in 2026, with a forecasted further decrease to 304 in 2027. This divergence between rising total student numbers and falling per-school averages indicates that operators must recruit new pupils and retain existing families more aggressively while managing costs against income. The pressure is particularly acute for newly opened schools, which must cover initial investments and operating expenses before establishing a sufficient student base to become viable. Bangkok remains the dominant market, hosting over 45% of all international schools in the country, leading to especially fierce competition in the capital. To offset revenue pressures from lower average enrollment, tuition fees are expected to rise; average annual fees at Bangkok schools are forecast to increase by approximately 5% to 839,184 baht for the 2026/27 academic year, following a 3% rise from 776,887 baht in 2024/25 to 799,818 baht in 2025/26. Despite these fee hikes, operators must remain mindful of parents' ability to pay and the increased alternatives available to families. Sector-wide revenue is forecast to reach 128 billion baht in 2026 and 141 billion baht in 2027, building on a steady climb from 75 billion baht in 2022 through 103 billion baht in 2024 and 116 billion baht in 2025. However, revenue growth does not guarantee proportional profit increases, necessitating strict cost monitoring and efficiency improvements. KResearch emphasizes that differentiation is now critical for survival, as schools can no longer rely solely on reputation or standard international curricula. Success will depend on educational quality, specialist programs, skill-development activities, school environment, safety measures, and a supportive social culture to attract and retain pupils in this crowded market.