Empty Restaurant Tables Are the Economy’s First Signal

Thailand’s restaurant industry is a market worth more than 700 billion baht a year. Hundreds of thousands of small restaurants support millions of jobs. That market is now being squeezed from both sides: fewer customers and higher costs.

According to the Thai Restaurant Association, sales at small and medium-sized restaurants fell 30–50% in the second quarter this year, while ingredient costs rose 15–20%. Labour, electricity, rent and delivery-platform commissions add to the pressure, leaving many operators accepting losses to keep their businesses and employees going. Large chains are not exempt. MK Restaurant Group’s first-quarter net profit fell 30.1%, and Suki Teenoi’s fell 37.3%. Central Restaurants Group, by contrast, increased net profit by 50% after rationalising unprofitable brands and branches. The same market and downturn produced different outcomes.

Another set of figures deserves attention. Newly registered restaurant companies totalled 2,119 in the first half, up 15.67% from a year earlier. During the same period, business dissolution registrations across all industries reached 7,024, an increase of 12.49%. More businesses are closing, yet more restaurants are opening. It is a familiar pattern in an industry that is easy to enter and difficult to survive in.

Government support exposed another paradox. Thai Chuay Thai Plus, implemented for four months from June, focused on small operators with annual revenue of no more than 1.8 million baht. Restaurants with annual revenue of 2–5 million baht, which employ staff and pay taxes and social-security contributions, were left outside the criteria. The association complained that some lost sales as customers moved to participating restaurants. That support programme ended in September. From October, businesses must rely on their own resilience.

As a manufacturer, I do not see this as someone else’s problem. When consumption weakens, restaurants feel it first, followed by the factories supplying restaurants and supermarkets. What is happening in food service—costs rising while selling prices cannot keep pace, with promotions and platform commissions eating into profits—also applies to consumer-goods manufacturing.

What can SMEs do now?

First, look at the numbers every day. When costs rise 15%, waiting until month-end to check profitability is already too late. Whether you sell dishes or manufactured products, checking costs and margins item by item helps reveal where money is leaking.

Second, have the courage to let things go. Central Restaurants Group demonstrated the power of streamlining rather than expansion. Cutting products that do not sell and channels that do not generate profit is the first investment to make in a downturn.

Third, compete on value rather than price. The business with deeper pockets wins a discount war. A smaller company must compete through consistent quality, hygiene and safety, and reasons for regular customers to return.

I hope the government will revisit the design of its support measures. If eligibility rests on a single revenue threshold, businesses that consistently pay taxes may end up disadvantaged. Criteria should also consider employment and tax records, with support phased down rather than abruptly withdrawn. Industry and government should also work together on costs over which small businesses have little bargaining power, including delivery-platform commissions and shopping-centre rents.

An empty restaurant table is one of the economy’s earliest signals. Companies that read that signal and act first will be ready for the next season.

References

• ร้านอาหารเล็กเริ่มไม่ไหว! ยอดขายหาย 50% สมาคมภัตตาคารไทยยื่นหนังสือจี้นายกฯ – THE STANDARD (2026.6.8)
• "ไทยช่วยไทยพลัส" ร้านร่วมโครงการยอดพุ่งเท่าตัว สวนทางร้านนอกเกณฑ์ยอดวูบ 50% – Thai PBS (2026.6.9)
• Rising costs and price wars push chains and small restaurants to the brink – The Nation (2026.6.1)
• ‘ซาโบเตน’ ปิดสาขาเซ็นทรัลเวิลด์ หมดสัญญาเช่าที่ ส่วนธุรกิจร้านอาหารปี 69 หืดจับถ้วนหน้า – กรุงเทพธุรกิจ
• ร้านอาหารหืดจับ ต้นทุนพุ่ง ติดกลุ่ม 3 ธุรกิจเลิกกิจการสูงสุด ครึ่งปีแรก 69 – ฐานเศรษฐกิจ (2026.8.20)
• “พาณิชย์” เผยครึ่งปีแรกตั้งธุรกิจใหม่ 4.48 หมื่นราย โต 2.13% เลิกกิจการเพิ่ม 12.49% – ข่าวหุ้น (DBD figures)
• Bangkok’s culinary stars fade amid rising costs, tighter budgets and fewer tourists – SCMP (2026.10.7)